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Cancer Immunology Research

American Association for Cancer Research (AACR)

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Cancer Immunology Research's content profile, based on 34 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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OCA-B/Pou2af1 Expression in T Cells Promotes PD-1 Blockade-Induced Autoimmunity but is Dispensable for Anti-Tumor Immunity

Du, J.; Manna, A. K.; Medina-Serpas, M. A.; Hughes, E. P.; Bisoma, P.; Evason, K. J.; Young, A.; Wilson, W. D.; Brusko, T.; Farahat, A. A.; Tantin, D.

2026-04-16 immunology 10.1101/2025.10.22.683978 medRxiv
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The transcription coregulator OCA-B promotes CD4+ T cell memory recall responses and autoimmunity. OCA-B T cell deletion prevents spontaneous type-1 diabetes (T1D) onset in non-obese diabetic (NOD) mice and blunts T1D in a subset of more aggressive models. However, the role of OCA-B in diabetes induced by treatment with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), and the role of OCA-B in the control of tumors with and without ICI treatment, has not been studied. Here we show that islet and pancreatic lymph node T cells from T1D individuals express measurable POU2AF1 mRNA. Deletion of OCA-B in T cells fully insulates 8-week-old non-obese diabetic (NOD) mice against ICI-induced diabetes and partially protects 12-week-old mice. Salivary and lacrimal gland infiltration and inflammation were also reduced. Protection was associated with a block in the differentiation of progenitor exhausted CD8+ T cells (TPEX) into terminally exhausted CD8+ T cells (TEX). We show that OCA-B T cell loss preserves anti-tumor immune responses following PD-1 blockade in different tumors and mouse strains. These findings point to a potential therapeutic window in which pharmaceuticals targeting OCA-B could be used to block the emergence of both spontaneous and ICI-induced autoimmunity while sparing anti-tumor immunity. We develop first-in-class small molecule inhibitors of Oct1/OCA-B transcription complexes and show that administration into NOD mice also blocks diabetes emergence following PD-1 blockade. These results identify OCA-B as a promising therapeutic target for the prevention of autoimmunity and immune-related adverse events (irAEs).

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Molecular signature of pediatric B-ALL determines outcomes post CD19 CAR-T cell therapy

Oszer, A.; Pastorczak, A.; Urbanska, Z.; Miarka, K.; Marschollek, P.; Richert-Przygonska, M.; Mielcarek-Siedziuk, M.; Baggott, C.; Schultz, L.; Moon, J.; Aftandilian, C.; Styczynski, J.; Kalwak, K.; Mlynarski, W.; Davis, K. L.

2026-04-13 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.11.26350681 medRxiv
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Chimeric antigen receptor T-cell (CAR-T) therapy targeting CD19 has transformed outcomes for children with relapsed or refractory (R/R) B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (B-ALL), yet the influence of molecular subtype on outcomes remains unclear. We evaluated the impact of cytogenetic and molecular signatures on complete response (CR), overall survival (OS), and leukemia-free survival (LFS) after CD19 CAR-T therapy in eighty-six pediatric patients with R/R B-ALL treated with tisagenlecleucel. CR was assessed 30 days after infusion. Cytogenetic data were available for 84 patients and molecular profiling for 62. Survival analyses included 72 patients who received CD19 CAR-T as the sole cellular therapy. Seventy-seven patients achieved CR (89.5%). Pre-infusion bone marrow blasts of [&ge;]20% were associated with lower CR rates (53.8% vs 95.9%, p<0.0001) and significantly reduced OS and LFS (both p<0.0001). Among molecular markers, RAS mutations correlated with inferior OS (p=0.0222) and LFS (0.0402). In multivariate analysis, bone marrow blasts >20% and RAS mutations independently predicted inferior OS. Post CAR-T, CD19 negative relapses showed almost twice higher prevalence of RAS mutations (66% vs 37.5%). These findings highlight RAS mutations as a key molecular predictor of outcome after CD19 CAR-T therapy and suggest emergence of unique risk stratification for patients receiving CD19-targeting therapy.

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SCOPE: Integrating Organoid Screening and Clinical Variables Through Machine Learning for Cancer Trial Outcome Prediction

Bouteiller, J.; Gryspeert, A.-R.; Caron, J.; Polit, L.; Altay, G.; Cabantous, M.; Pietrzak, R.; Graziosi, F.; Longarini, M.; Schutte, K.; Cartry, J.; Mathieu, J. R.; Bedja, S.; Boileve, A.; Ducreux, M.; Pages, D.-L.; Jaulin, F.; Ronteix, G.

2026-04-11 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.10.26350512 medRxiv
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Background: Predicting whether a treatment will demonstrate meaningful clinical benefit before committing to a large-scale trial remains a major unmet need in oncology. Patient-derived organoids (PDOs) recapitulate individual tumor drug sensitivity, but have not been used to forecast population-level trial outcomes. We developed SCOPE (Screening-to-Clinical Outcome Prediction Engine), a platform that integrates PDO drug screening with clinical prognostic modeling to predict arm-level median progression-free survival (mPFS) and objective response rate (ORR) without access to any trial outcome data. Patients and methods: SCOPE was trained on 54 treatment lines from patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC, n=15) and metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (mPDAC, n=39) with matched clinical data and PDO drug screening across 9 compounds. A Clinical Score module captures baseline prognosis; a Drug Screen Score module quantifies treatment-specific organoid sensitivity. To predict trial outcomes, synthetic patient profiles are generated from published eligibility criteria and matched to a biobank of 81 PDO lines. Predictions were externally validated against 32 arms from 23 published trials, treatment ranking was assessed across 8 head-to-head comparisons, and prospective applicability was tested for daraxonrasib (RMC-6236), a novel pan-RAS inhibitor in mPDAC. Results: Predicted mPFS strongly agreed with published outcomes (R2=0.85, MAE=0.82 months; Pearson r=0.92, P<0.001), approaching the empirical concordance between two independently measured clinical endpoints (ORR vs. mPFS, R2=0.87). ORR prediction was similarly robust (R2=0.71, MAE=7.3 percentage points). Integrating organoid and clinical data significantly outperformed either alone (P=0.001). SCOPE correctly identified the superior arm in 7 of 8 head-to-head comparisons (88%, P<0.05). Applied to daraxonrasib prior to phase 3 data availability, the platform predicted superiority over standard chemotherapy in KRAS-mutant mPDAC, consistent with emerging clinical data. Conclusion: By combining functional organoid drug screening with clinical modeling, SCOPE generates calibrated efficacy predictions for both established regimens and novel agents without prior clinical data. This approach could support clinical trial design, treatment arm selection, and go/no-go decisions, offering a new tool to improve the efficiency of gastrointestinal cancer drug development.

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Vaccine-induced antibody and T cell responses in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia

Shapiro, J. R.; Dorogy, A.; Science, M.; Gupta, S.; Alexander, S.; Bolotin, S.; Watts, T. H.

2026-04-12 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.10.26350531 medRxiv
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Children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) are treated with multiagent chemotherapy that causes profound changes to the immune system. There are limited data on how disease and therapy impact antigen-specific immune memory, leading to inconsistent guidelines on best practices for revaccination of this population. Here, to inform vaccine guidance, we investigated whether immunity derived from routine childhood measles and varicella zoster virus (VZV) vaccines is maintained during and after therapy for childhood ALL. We report that antibodies against measles and VZV were significantly reduced in children with ALL (n=45) compared to healthy controls (n=13), particularly in older children in whom a longer time had passed since their most recent vaccine dose. However, the avidity of the measles and VZV-specific antibodies was indistinguishable between groups. Despite changes to the composition of the T cell compartment, both overall and antigen-specific T cell function were preserved in children with ALL. These data provide compelling evidence for revaccination of children following ALL treatment. Intact T cell responses suggest that post-treatment revaccination would be effective.

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Virtual Spectral Decomposition with Dendritic Tile Selection: An Explainable AI Framework for Multimodal Tissue Composition Analysis and Immune Phenotyping Across Pancreatic, Lung, and Breast Cancer

Chandra, S.

2026-04-13 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.11.26350689 medRxiv
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Background: Current deep learning models in computational pathology, radiology, and digital pathology produce opaque predictions that lack the explainable artificial intelligence (xAI) capabilities required for clinical adoption. Despite achieving radiologist-level performance in tasks from whole-slide image (WSI) classification to mammographic screening, these models function as black boxes: clinicians cannot trace predictions to specific biological features, verify outputs against established morphological criteria, or integrate AI reasoning into precision oncology workflows and tumor board decision-making. Methods: We present Virtual Spectral Decomposition (VSD), a modality-agnostic, interpretable-by-design framework that decomposes medical images into six biologically interpretable tissue composition channels using sigmoid threshold functions - the same mathematical structure as CT windowing. Unlike post-hoc xAI methods (Grad-CAM, SHAP, LIME) applied to black-box deep learning models, VSD channels have pre-defined biological meanings derived from tissue physics, providing inherent explainability without sacrificing quantitative rigor. For whole-slide image (WSI) analysis in digital pathology, we introduce the dendritic tile selection algorithm, a biologically-inspired hierarchical architecture achieving 70-80% computational reduction while preferentially sampling the tumor immune microenvironment. VSD is validated across three cancer types and imaging modalities: pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) on CT imaging, lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) on H&E-stained pathology slides using TCGA data, and breast cancer on screening mammography. Composition entropy of the six-channel vector is computed as a visual Biological Entropy Index (vBEI) - an imaging biomarker quantifying the diversity of active biological defense systems. Results: In pancreatic cancer, the fat-to-stroma ratio (a novel CT-derived radiomics biomarker) declines from >5.0 (normal) to <0.5 (advanced PDAC), enabling early detection of desmoplastic invasion before mass formation on standard imaging. In lung cancer, composition entropy from H&E whole-slide images correlates with tumor immune microenvironment markers from RNA-seq (CD3: rho=+0.57, p=0.009; CD8: rho=+0.54, p=0.015; PD-1: rho=+0.54, p=0.013) and predicts overall survival (low entropy immune-desert phenotype: 71% mortality vs 29%, p=0.032; n=20 TCGA-LUAD), providing immune phenotyping for checkpoint immunotherapy patient selection from a $5 H&E slide without molecular assays. In breast cancer, each lesion type produces a characteristic six-channel fingerprint functioning as an interpretable computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) system for quantitative BI-RADS assessment and subtype classification (IDC vs ILC vs DCIS vs IBC). A five-level xAI audit trail provides complete traceability from clinical decision support output to specific biological structures visible on the original images. Conclusion: VSD establishes a unified, interpretable-by-design mathematical framework for explainable tissue composition analysis across imaging modalities and cancer types. Unlike black-box deep learning and post-hoc xAI approaches, VSD provides inherently interpretable, clinically verifiable cancer detection and immune phenotyping from standard clinical imaging at existing costs - without requiring foundation model infrastructure, specialized hardware, or molecular assays. The open-source pipeline (Google Colab, Supplementary Material) enables immediate reproducibility and extension to additional cancer types across the pan-cancer TCGA atlas.

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Validation of Immunoscore for Prognostic Stratification in HPV-associated Oropharyngeal Cancer: An International Multicenter Study

Nguyen, D. H.; Majdi, A.; Marliot, F.; Houtart, V.; Kirilovsky, A.; Hijazi, A.; Fredriksen, T.; de Sousa Carvalho, N.; Bach, A.- S.; Gaultier, A.- L.; Fabiano, E.; Kreps, S.; Tartour, E.; Pere, H.; Veyer, D.; Blanchard, P.; Angell, H. K.; Pages, F.; Mirghani, H.; Galon, J.

2026-04-11 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350238 medRxiv
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BackgroundTreatment optimization in HPV-associated oropharyngeal cancer (OPSCC) remains challenging, as recent de-escalation trials have shown limited success. Current patient selection strategies based on smoking history and TNM classification are insufficient, highlighting the need for robust, standardized prognostic biomarkers. We report the first validation of the Immunoscore (IS) for prognostic stratification in HPV-associated OPSCC. Patients and methodsWe analyzed 191 HPV-associated (p16+ and HPV DNA/RNA+) OPSCC patients from an international multicenter cohort (2015-2024), comprising a French monocentric retrospective training cohort (N = 48) and three validation cohorts: French monocentric retrospective (N = 48), French multicenter prospective (N = 50), and US multicenter retrospective (N = 45). IS is a standardized digital pathology assay quantifying CD3lJ and CD8lJ densities in tumor cores and invasive margins, with cut-offs defined in the training cohort and validated across cohorts. Associations with disease-free survival (DFS), time to recurrence (TTR) and overall survival (OS) were assessed, alongside 3RNA-seq and sequential immunofluorescence profiling of immune composition. ResultsMedian age 65; 80% male; 74% smokers; 66% T1-2; 82% N0-1 (AJCC8th). IS-High patients demonstrated superior 3-year DFS in the training and validation cohorts 1-3 (all log-rank P < 0.05). Multivariable analysis identified IS-Low as the strongest independent risk factor for DFS (HR 9.03; 95% CI: 4.02-20.31; P < 0.001). The model combining IS with clinical factors showed higher predictive accuracy for DFS (C-index 0.82) than clinical variables alone (0.7; P < 0.0001). Similar findings were observed for TTR and OS. IS-High tumors showed markedly higher enrichment of lymphoid and myeloid immune cell populations, contrasting with immune-poor signatures in IS-Low tumors. ConclusionsIS is a robust biomarker that outperforms standard clinical variables in both prognostic and predictive accuracy. The enriched cytotoxic immune infiltrate in IS-High tumors explains favorable outcomes and supports their suitability for treatment de-escalation. Prospective validation is warranted.

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Drug response profiling guides precision therapy in relapsed and refractory childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia

Steffen, F. D.; Lissat, A.; Alten, J.; Kriston, A.; Scheidegger, N.; Eckert, C.; Bodmer, N.; Schori, L.; Schühle, S.; Arpagaus, A.; Gutnik, S.; Manioti, D.; Bruderer, N.; Zeckanovic, A.; Västrik, I.; Nyiri, G.; Kovacs, F.; Thorhauge Als-Nielsen, B. E.; Attarbaschi, A.; Rademacher, A.; Elitzur, S.; Jacoby, E.; De Moerloose, B.; Svenberg, P.; Ancliff, P.; Sramkova, L.; Buldini, B.; Balduzzi, A.; Boer, J. M.; Mielcarek, M.; Ceppi, F.; Ansari, M.; Halter, J.; Schmiegelow, K.; Locatelli, F.; DelBufalo, F.; Stanulla, M.; Kulozik, A. E.; Schrappe, M.; Rohrlich, P.; Cave, H.; Baruchel, A.; von Stack

2026-04-11 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350164 medRxiv
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Children with relapsed or refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) require more effective and less toxic therapies. We established a prospective, multicenter Drug Response Profiling (DRP) registry (NCT06550102) integrating functional testing into precision-guided treatment. DRP was performed for 340 patients from 17 European countries with a turn-around time of two-weeks. Image-based drug screening with over 135000 unique perturbations revealed a heterogeneous landscape of ex vivo responses to 88 drugs on average. Ranking drug responses across the patient cohort defined individual drug fingerprints, identifying "DRP twins" by similarity in sensitivity and resistance independent of genetic ALL subtypes. Of 239 high-risk patients with follow-up, DRP-informed interventions were reported for 63 patients (26%). Patients received combination therapies based on venetoclax, tyrosine kinase inhibitors, trametinib, bortezomib or selinexor, resulting in objective clinical responses in 43 cases (68%). Precision-guided treatments allowed bridging to cellular therapies in 42 patients among whom 28 (67%) were still alive with a median follow-up of 21 months after DRP (IQR: 14.7-26.6 months). Top responders to venetoclax, ranked within the first tertile of the cohort, had superior 1-year event-survival compared to venetoclax non-responders (0.57 [95% CI, 0.39-0.85] vs. 0.25 [95% CI, 0.11-0.58]). Collectively, these findings demonstrate the feasibility and clinical relevance of functional profiling within an international network. This scalable framework enables individualized therapy selection for enrolment in adaptive precision trials for high-risk pediatric ALL.

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WITHDRAWN: Detection of Measles Virus RNA in Wastewater: Monitoring for Wild-Type and Vaccine-Derived Strains in a National Preparedness Trial

Ahmed, W.; Gebrewold, M.; Verhagen, R.; Koh, M.; Gazeley, J.; Levy, A.; Simpson, S.; Nolan, M.

2026-04-13 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.09.26350527 medRxiv
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Wastewater surveillance (WWS) is established as a vital tool for monitoring polio and SARS-CoV-2 with potential to improve surveillance for many other infectious diseases. This study evaluated the feasibility of detecting measles virus (MeV) RNA in wastewater as part of a national WS preparedness trial in Brisbane, Australia, from March to June 2025. Composite and passive sampling methods were employed in parallel at three wastewater treatment plants serving populations between 230,000 and 584,000. Nucleic acids were extracted and analyzed using RT-qPCR targeting MeV N and M genes to distinguish wild-type and vaccine strains. MeV RNA were detected in both 24-hour composite and passive samples on May 26 to 27, 2025 from the largest catchment of 584,000 which also included an international airport. No measles cases were reported in this city or region within 4 weeks of the WS detections. These were confirmed as vaccine-derived measles virus (MeVV) strain via specific RT-qPCR assay. Extraction recoveries varied (11.5% to 70.5%), with passive sampling showing higher efficiency. This is the first report of use of passive samples for detection of MeV. These findings are consistent with other studies reporting WWS results of both MeVV genotype A and wild type genotype B and/or D. It demonstrates the potential for sensitive MeV WWS with rapid differentiation of MeVV from wild type MeV shedding, including in airport transport hubs and with different sample types. Use of WWS could strengthen measles surveillance by enabling rapid detection of MeV RNA and supporting outbreak preparedness and response. This requires optimised methods which are specific to or differentiate wild-type MeV from MeVV. Furthermore, the successful detection of MeV using passive sampling in this study highlights its potential for deployment in diverse global contexts which may include non-sewered settings.

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Understanding community knowledge, attitudes and practices related to participation in household transmission investigations during infectious disease outbreaks

Meagher, N.; Hettiarachchi, D.; Hawkins, M. R.; Tavlian, S.; Spirkoska, V.; McVernon, J.; Carville, K. S.; Price, D. J.; Villanueva Cabezas, J. P.; Marcato, A. J.

2026-04-13 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350464 medRxiv
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BackgroundThe World Health Organization has developed several global template protocols for epidemiological investigations, including for household transmission investigations (HHTIs). These investigations facilitate rapid characterisation of novel or re-emerging respiratory pathogens and support evidence-based public health actions. Beyond technical readiness, community buy-in is central to the feasibility and acceptability of HHTIs. Research is needed to determine the perceived legitimacy among the community to inform local protocol adaptation and development of implementation plans that consider community attitudes and needs. MethodsIn 2025, we conducted a convenience survey of community members living in Victoria, Australia to explore: their understanding of emerging respiratory diseases; their willingness to take part in public health surveillance activities such as HHTIs; the acceptability of clinical and epidemiological data collection and respiratory/blood sample collection as main components of HHTIs, and; participant comfort towards including their companion animals in HHTIs. ResultsWe received 282 survey responses, of which 235 were included in the analysis dataset. Compared to the general Victorian population, our participants included a higher proportion of participants who reported being female, tertiary-educated, of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander heritage, born in Australia and speaking only English at home. Participants indicated overall high levels of comfort and acceptability towards participation in HHTIs, particularly in relation to clinical and epidemiological data collection, with lesser but still high levels of comfort with providing multiple respiratory specimens in a 14-day period. Participants were least comfortable with other specimens such as urine and blood. Involving companion animals in HHTIs was similarly acceptable as human-focused components. ConclusionsDespite our survey population being non-representative of the general Victorian population, our findings provide valuable descriptive insights into the acceptability of HHTIs in Victoria, Australia from which to benchmark future local and international surveys and community engagement activities.

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SARS-CoV-2 Introductions into Lao PDR Revealed by Genomic Surveillance, 2021-2024

Panapruksachat, S.; Troupin, C.; Souksavanh, M.; Keeratipusana, C.; Vongsouvath, M.; Vongphachanh, S.; Vongsouvath, M.; Phommasone, K.; Somlor, S.; Robinson, M. T.; Chookajorn, T.; Kochakarn, T.; Day, N. P.; Mayxay, M.; Letizia, A. G.; Dubot-Peres, A.; Ashley, E. A.; Buchy, P.; Xangsayarath, P.; Batty, E. M.

2026-04-13 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.09.26349480 medRxiv
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We used 2492 whole genome sequences from Laos to investigate the molecular epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 from 2021 through 2024, covering the major waves of COVID-19 disease in Laos including time periods of travel restrictions and after relaxation of travel across international borders. We identify successive waves of COVID-19 caused by shifts in the dominant lineage, beginning with the Alpha variant in April 2021 and continuing through the Delta and Omicron variants. We quantify a shift from a small number of viral introductions responsible for widespread transmission in early waves to a larger number of introductions for each variant after travel restrictions were lifted, and identify potential routes of introduction into the country. Our study underscores the importance of genomic surveillance to public health responses to characterize viral transmission dynamics during pandemics.

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Time to diagnosis among children and adolescents with cancer in Quebec, Canada: a population-based study

Mullen, C.; Barr, R. D.; Strumpf, E.; El-Zein, M.; Franco, E. L.; Malagon, T.

2026-04-13 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.09.26350491 medRxiv
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BackgroundTimely cancer diagnosis in children and adolescents is critical to improving outcomes, yet substantial variation in diagnostic intervals persists across cancer types and care settings. We aimed to quantify time to diagnosis and assess variations by patient, demographic, and system-level factors. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective population-based study of children and adolescents aged 0-19 years diagnosed with one of 12 common cancers between 2010 and 2022 in Quebec, Canada. The diagnostic interval was defined as the time from first cancer-related healthcare encounter to diagnosis. We calculated medians and interquartile ranges (IQR) overall and by cancer type and used multivariable quantile regression to identify factors associated with time to diagnosis at the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles. ResultsAmong 2,927 individuals with cancer, diagnostic intervals varied by cancer type and age. Median intervals were longest for carcinomas (100 days; IQR 33-192) and shortest for leukemias (8 days; IQR 3-44). Compared with children living in Montreal, living in regional areas and other large urban centres was associated with longer 50th and 75th percentiles of time to diagnosis for hepatic and central nervous system (CNS) tumours. Diagnostic intervals were shorter in the post-pandemic period (2020-2022) across several cancer sites, with CNS tumours showing reductions across all quantiles. InterpretationDiagnostic timeliness differed by cancer type, age, and rurality, but not by sex, material, or social deprivation. The shorter diagnostic intervals observed in the post-pandemic period suggest that pandemic-related changes in care pathways may have expedited diagnosis for some cancers.

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Characteristics and Correlates of Older Smokers Experiences with E-Cigarette-Related Content on Social Media: Findings from a U.S.-Based Survey

Dycus, R.

2026-04-11 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.07.26350354 medRxiv
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BackgroundDespite their potential to serve as a reduced-harm alternative to combustible tobacco, e-cigarette take-up remains low among older (45+) adult smokers, especially in the U.S. While social media is a known driver of vaping attitudes and behaviors in younger populations, its influence on older smokers is poorly understood. This paper provides the first focused analysis of e-cigarette-related social media exposure in this population, documenting its prevalence, characteristics, and attitudinal correlates. MethodsData come from an opt-in survey of U.S. adults (N = 974) recruited via Prolific, comprising three groups: (i) non-vaping smokers aged 45+ (N = 484), (ii) former-smoking vapers aged 45+ (N = 149), and (iii) any-vaping-status smokers aged 18-35 (N = 341). Descriptive statistics, weighted to U.S. population benchmarks, characterize self-reported exposure to e-cigarette-related content on social media. Logistic regressions estimate associations between exposure and intentions for future e-cigarette use, e-cigarette harm perceptions, and related attitudes. ResultsOlder smokers (35.3%) reported exposure to e-cigarette-related content on social media less frequently than both older vapers (44.0%) and younger smokers (72.0%). For older smokers, e-cigarette health risks were the most frequently reported topic of content viewed, followed by youth vaping and e-cigarette addiction. Among this group, exposure was positively associated with stated intentions for future e-cigarette use. Exposure was not significantly associated with perceived e-cigarette harms for any group. ConclusionsFindings provide suggestive evidence that social media exposure may promote e-cigarette adoption among older smokers. However, the cross-sectional design limits causal inference, and the observed associations may reflect selection bias or reverse causality. If a causal relationship exists, the patterns observed suggest that exposure influences e-cigarette adoption through mechanisms other than updating beliefs about e-cigarette risks. While these results tentatively support the potential of social media as a channel for older-smoker harm reduction, any policy applications must carefully weigh privacy concerns and risks to youth. Rigorous experimental studies are needed to confirm these findings and clarify how social media might be leveraged to improve public health outcomes among older smokers.

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Wearable-derived physiological features for trans-diagnostic disease comparison and classification in the All of Us longitudinal real-world dataset

Huang, X.; Hsieh, C.; Nguyen, Q.; Renteria, M. E.; Gharahkhani, P.

2026-04-13 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.07.26350352 medRxiv
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Wearable-derived physiological features have been associated with disease risk, but most current studies focus on single conditions, limiting understanding of cross-disease patterns. This study adopts a trans-diagnostic approach to examine whether wearable data capture shared and condition-specific physiological signatures across multiple chronic conditions spanning physical and mental health, and then evaluates the utility of these features for disease classification. A total of 9,301 patients with at least 21 days of consecutive FitBit data from the All of Us Controlled Tier Dataset version 8 were analyzed. Disease subcohorts included cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), major depressive disorder (MDD), anxiety, bipolar disorder, and attention-deficit/ hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), chosen based on prevalence and relevance. Logistic regression and XGBoost models were fitted for each disease subcohort versus the control cohort. We found that compared to using just baseline demographic and lifestyle features, incorporating wearable-derived features enabled improved classification performance in all subcohorts for both models, except for ADHD where improvement was mainly observed for ROC-AUC in logistic regression model likely due to the smaller sample size in ADHD subcohort. The largest performance gains were observed in MDD (increase in ROC-AUC of 0.077 for Logistic regression, 0.071 for XGBoost; p < 0.001) and anxiety (increase in ROC-AUC of 0.077 for logistic regression, 0.108 for XGBoost; p < 0.001). This study provides one of the first comprehensive transdiagnostic evaluations of wearable-derived features for disease classification, highlighting their potential to enhance risk stratification in the real-world setting as a practical complement to clinical assessments and providing a foundation to explore more fine-grained wearable data. Author summaryWearable devices such as fitness trackers and smartwatches are becoming increasingly popular and affordable, providing continuous measurements of heart rate, physical activity, and sleep. Alongside the growing digitization of health records, this creates new opportunities for large-scale, real-world health studies. In this study, we analyzed wearable-derived physiological patterns across a range of chronic conditions spanning both physical and mental health to better understand how these signals relate to disease risk. We found that incorporating wearable-derived heart rate, activity and sleep features improved disease risk classification across several conditions, with particularly strong gains for major depressive disorder and anxiety. By examining how individual features contributed to model predictions, we also identified meaningful associations between physiological signals and disease risk. For example, both duration and day-to-day variation of deep and rapid eye movement (REM) sleep were associated with increased risk in certain conditions. Our study supports the development of real-time, automated tools to assess disease risk alongside clinical care.

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Non-genetic component of height as a surrogate marker for childhood socioeconomic position and its association with cardiovascular and brain health: results from HCHS/SOL

Moon, J.-Y.; Filigrana, P.; Gallo, L. C.; Perreira, K. M.; Cai, J.; Daviglus, M.; Fernandez-Rhodes, L. E.; Garcia-Bedoya, O.; Qi, Q.; Thyagarajan, B.; Tarraf, W.; Wang, T.; Kaplan, R.; Isasi, C. R.

2026-04-13 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350438 medRxiv
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Childhood socioeconomic position (SEP) can have lifelong effects on health. Many studies have used adult height as a surrogate marker for early-life conditions. In this study, we derived the non-genetic component of height, calculated as the residual from sex-specific standardized height regressed on genetically predicted height, as a surrogate for childhood SEP, using data from the Hispanic Community Healthy Study/Study of Latinos (2008-2011). A positive residual would indicate favorable early-life conditions promoting growth, while a negative residual indicates early-life adversity that may stunt the development. The height residual was associated with early-life variables such as parental education, year of birth, US nativity and age at first migration to the US (50 states/DC), supporting the validity of height residual as a surrogate for early-life conditions. Furthermore, a height residual was positively associated with better cardiovascular health (CVH) and cognitive function among middle-aged and older adults. Interestingly, among <35 years old, the height residual was negatively associated with the "Lifes Essential 8" clinical CVH scores. These results suggest the non-genetic component of height as a surrogate for childhood environment, with predictive value for CVH and cognitive function.

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Five-Domain Accelerometer-Derived Behavioral Exposome and Incident Cancer Risk in UK Biobank

Ni Chan Chin (Chengqin Ni), M.; Berrio, J. A.

2026-04-12 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.07.26350369 medRxiv
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BackgroundAccelerometer-derived behavioral phenotype captures multidimensional aspects of human behavior extending well beyond physical activity, encompassing light exposure, step counts, physical activity patterns, sleep, and circadian rhythms. Whether these five domains constitute a unified behavioral architecture underlying cancer risk and whether circadian organization and light exposure confer incremental predictive value beyond movement volume alone remains to be comprehensively established. MethodsWe conducted an accelerometer-wide association study (AWAS) encompassing the complete accelerometer-derived behavioral exposome across five behavioral domains in UK Biobank participants with valid wrist accelerometry data. Incident solid cancers were designated as the primary endpoint, with prespecified site-specific solid cancers and hematological malignancy as secondary outcomes. Cox proportional hazards models with age as the timescale were used. The minimal covariate set served as the primary reporting tier, followed by sensitivity analyses additionally adjusting for adiposity/metabolic factors, independent activity patterns, shift work history, and accelerometry measurement quality. Nominal statistical significance was defined as two-sided P < 0.05 ResultsAmong 89,080 participants, 6,598 incident solid cancer events were observed over a median follow-up of 8.39 years. In the minimally adjusted model, the pan-solid-tumor association atlas was dominated by signals from activity volume, inactivity fragmentation, and circadian rhythm. Higher overall acceleration (HR per SD: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.89-0.94) and higher daily step counts (HR: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.90-0.95) were independently associated with reduced solid cancer risk, while inactivity fragmentation metrics were consistently linked to higher risk. Notably, circadian rhythms, most prominently cosinor mesor (Midline Estimating Statistic of Rhythm under cosinor model), emerged as leading inverse risk signals, underscoring the independent contribution of circadian behavioral architecture. Site-specific analyses revealed pronounced heterogeneity across tumor sites. Lung cancer exhibited a robust inverse activity-risk gradient, while breast cancer showed reproducible associations with MVPA. Most strikingly, nocturnal light exposure demonstrated a tumor-site-specific association confined to pancreatic cancer, a signal absent across all other sites examined. Associations for uterine cancer were predominantly inactivity-related and substantially attenuated following adjustment for adiposity and metabolic factors. ConclusionsAcross five accelerometer-derived behavioral domains, solid cancers as a whole were most consistently associated with a high-movement, low-fragmentation, and circadian-coherent behavioral profile. While site-specific heterogeneity exists, the broad cancer risk landscape is dominated by movement volume, inactivity fragmentation, and circadian rhythmicity. Light exposure, although more localized in its contribution, demonstrates a potentially novel and specific association with pancreatic cancer risk. These findings support a five-domain behavioral exposome framework for cancer epidemiology and, importantly, position circadian rhythm integrity and nocturnal light exposure as critically understudied dimensions warranting dedicated mechanistic investigation.

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Dengue risk perception and public preferences for vector control in Italy and France: utility and regret-based choice experiments

Andrei, F.; Tizzoni, M.; Veltri, G. A.

2026-04-11 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.10.26350604 medRxiv
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Background: Dengue is rapidly emerging in parts of Europe. How households value vector control attributes, and whether inferences depend on decision models or message framing, is unclear. Methods: We conducted a split-ballot online experiment among adults in Italy and France, as well as a hotspot subsample from Marche, Italy. National samples included 1,505 respondents in Italy and 1,501 in France; 183 respondents were recruited in Marche. Participants were randomised to a discrete choice experiment (random utility maximisation) or a regret-based choice experiment (random regret minimisation) and to one of three pre-task messages (control, loss aversion, community values). Each respondent completed 12 choice tasks comparing two dengue control programmes and an opt-out. We estimated mixed logit and mixed random-regret models with random parameters and treatment effects. Results: Across frameworks, nearby cases and high mosquito prevalence were the dominant drivers of programme uptake, whereas cost and operational burden were secondary. In pooled analyses, loss-aversion messaging increased the weight on high mosquito prevalence in both models (from 0.483 to 0.547 in the utility model; from 0.478 to 0.557 in the regret model). Cost effects were small nationally but larger in the hotspot subsample. Conclusions: Risk salience dominates preferences for dengue vector control in these European settings. Random utility and random regret models yield consistent rankings of attributes but differ in behavioural interpretation and some secondary effects; messaging effects were modest and context dependent.

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Prevalence and Factors Associated with Family-Based HIV Index Case Testing in Wolaita Zone, Southern Ethiopia, 2023: A Cross-Sectional Study

Koyra, A. B.; Mohammed, F.; Eshete, T.

2026-04-11 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350444 medRxiv
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BackgroundFamily-based HIV index case testing identifies family members with unknown HIV status and links them to care. Data are limited in southern Ethiopia. MethodsA facility-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 377 adults on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Wolaita Zone, Southern Ethiopia, from November 2022 to May 2023. Participants were selected using systematic random sampling. Data were collected via interviewer-administered semi-structured questionnaire. Multivariable logistic regression identified factors associated with index case family testing. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated, and statistical significance was declared at p < 0.05. ResultsThe proportion of index case family testing for HIV was 84.9% (95% CI: 81.2- 88.6). In multivariable analysis, urban residence (AOR = 2.8; 95% CI: 1.16-6.75), duration on ART greater than 12 months (AOR = 13.0; 95% CI: 4.6-36.9), disclosure of HIV status to family members (AOR = 5.6; 95% CI: 1.9-16.5), discussion of HIV status with family members (AOR = 6.6; 95% CI: 1.9-23.2), and being counselled by health professionals to bring families for testing (AOR = 6.3; 95% CI: 2.1-19.0) were significantly associated with index case family testing. ConclusionThe prevalence of family-based HIV index case testing in Wolaita Zone was 84.9%, below the national 95% target. Health professionals should strengthen counselling on ART adherence, status disclosure, family discussion, and active referral to improve testing uptake among family members of people living with HIV.

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Planned egg freezing over 15 years: return to treatment and success rates in Australia and New Zealand

Fitzgerald, O.; Keller, E.; Illingworth, P.; Lieberman, D.; Peate, M.; Kotevski, D.; Paul, R.; Rodino, I.; Parle, A.; Hammarberg, K.; Copp, T.; Chambers, G. M.

2026-04-11 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.07.26350362 medRxiv
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Study questionWhat are the characteristics and treatment outcomes of women who undertook planned egg freezing (PEF) in Australia and New Zealand between 2009 and 2023? Summary answerThere has been an average yearly increase in the uptake of PEF of 35%, with most women undergoing a single PEF procedure in their mid-thirties. Given ten years follow-up a little over one in four women return, with nearly half of those using donor sperm and one-third achieving a live birth. What is known alreadyPEF, where women freeze their eggs as a strategy to preserve fertility, has increased dramatically in high income countries in the last decade. Despite the rapid uptake of PEF, there remains limited information to guide women, clinicians and policy makers regarding the characteristics of women undertaking this procedure and treatment outcomes. Study design, size, durationA retrospective population-based cohort study of all women who undertook PEF in Australia and New Zealand between 2009 and 2023, including their subsequent return to thaw their eggs and treatment outcomes. Where women returned to utilise their eggs, all subsequent embryo transfer procedures were linked enabling calculation of live birth rates per woman. Participants/materials, setting, methods20,209 women who undertook PEF in Australia and New Zealand between 2009 and 2023 including 1,657 women who returned to thaw their eggs. Main results and the role of chanceThere has been a huge increase in uptake of PEF, from 55 women in 2009 to 4,919 in 2023. Women who freeze their eggs are typically aged 34-38 years (interquartile range) and nulliparous (98.6%). For women with at least 10 years follow-up (i.e. undertook PEF in 2009-13; N=514), 27.9% returned and thawed their frozen eggs (average time to return: 4.9 years). This reduced to 22.1% in those with at least 5 years follow-up (i.e. undertook PEF in 2009-2018; N=4,288). Of those who used their frozen eggs, 47% used donor sperm. After at least two years follow up, 33.9% had a live birth, rising over time to 37.8% for eggs thawed between 2019-2021. Limitations, reasons for cautionIn the timeframe 2009-2019 we did not have information on whether egg freezing occurred because of a cancer diagnosis, a cohort we wished to exclude from the study. As a result, for this timeframe we weighted observations by the probability that egg freezing occurred due to cancer, with the prediction model developed on the years 2020-2023. Wider implications of the findingsThis study provides recent and comprehensive data on PEF to guide prospective patients and clinicians and inform policy. The exponential growth in PEF in Australia and New Zealand mirrors trends in other high-income countries, suggesting a doubling time of 2-3 years. Study findings highlight the need for setting realistic expectations about the likelihood of returning to use frozen eggs and live birth rates. Study funding/competing interest(s)2020-2025 MRFF Emerging Priorities and Consumer Driven Research initiative: EPCD000014

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Frequency of bacterial STI testing amongst people accessing sexual health services in England, 2024: a cross-sectional analysis of national surveillance data

Baldry, G.; Harb, A.-K.; Findlater, L.; Ogaz, D.; Migchelsen, S. J.; Fifer, H.; Saunders, J.; Mohammed, H.; Sinka, K.

2026-04-13 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.08.26349546 medRxiv
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ObjectivesWe determined the frequency of sexually transmitted infection (STI) testing among people accessing sexual health services (SHS) in England. MethodsWe assessed STI testing frequency in face-to-face and online SHSs in England using data from the GUMCAD STI surveillance system. We quantified different combinations of tests (e.g. single chlamydia test or full STI screen), number of tests completed in 2024 and test positivity by sociodemographic and behavioural characteristics, as well as clinical setting and outcomes. ResultsOverall, there were 2,222,028 attendances at SHS in England in 2024 that involved tests for chlamydia, gonorrhoea, syphilis and/or HIV. Most of these attendances involved tests for all four of these STIs. Most people accessing SHS in England tested once (80.1%), and a small minority (1.9%) tested at least quarterly (4+ times). Some groups had a comparably larger proportion of quarterly testers; these included gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) (6.7%), London residents (3.6%), online testers (2.5%), people using HIV-PrEP (13%), and people with 5+ partners in the previous 3 months (10.6%). Only 10.5% of GBMSM reporting higher-risk sexual behaviours tested quarterly despite recommendations for quarterly testing in this group. ConclusionsThe majority of those who tested for STIs in England in 2024 only tested once. The minority who tested at least quarterly had a higher proportion of GBMSM, people using HIV-PrEP, London residents and people reporting higher risk behaviours. Quarterly testing often appears to be aligned with current testing recommendations in England; however, we also observed that only a low proportion of behaviourally high-risk GBMSM and HIV-PrEP users are meeting these recommendations. It is important to acknowledge groups with lower or higher testing frequency when developing interventions and updating guidelines related to STI testing. WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ON THIS TOPICThe effectiveness of asymptomatic testing for chlamydia and gonorrhoea in gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM), and the potential impact of the consequent increased antibiotic use on rising antimicrobial resistance and individual harm has recently been questioned. Testing and treatment remains a key pillar of STI prevention and management; despite this, there is limited evidence of STI testing frequency within sexual services (SHS) on a national level. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDSThis analysis shows that the majority of people attending SHSs in England in 2024 tested once, and only a small proportion of behaviourally high-risk people tested frequently. HOW THIS STUDY MIGHT AFFECT RESEARCH, PRACTICE OR POLICYAwareness of groups that are behaviourally high risk but testing infrequently is important to guide interventions and messaging regarding STI testing. The low levels of frequent testing, even among those who would be recommended quarterly testing under UK guidelines, provides important context for wider discussion around asymptomatic STI screening.

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Challenging the guidelines: Longitudinal Trends in Left Ventricular Diameter and Function in Severe Aortic Regurgitation

Schwartzenberg, S.; Berkovitz, A.; Lerman, T. T.; Bental, T.; Vaturi, M.; Goldberg, Y.; Shapira, Y.

2026-04-11 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.09.26350549 medRxiv
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BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend aortic valve replacement (AVR) in patients with severe aortic regurgitation (AR) based on progressive changes in left ventricular (LV) function or size. We aimed to reassess the clinical relevance of current guideline recommendations pertaining to traditional echocardiographic measurements in routine practice. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of patients with severe AR who underwent serial echocardiographic follow-up over at least 18 months. The composite outcome was symptom-driven AVR, acute heart failure hospitalization, or death. We used a joint modelling approach to handle within-subject correlation and censoring. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 140 patients, with a median follow?up of 93 months (interquartile range 58?130). LV end-systolic (LVESD) and fractional shortening (FS) showed a small but statistically significant longitudinal trend, while LVEDD did not. Changes in all three parameters in parallel joint models adjusted for age and gender were consistently associated with increased risk of the composite event. Each 1?mm increase in LVESD and LVEDD was associated with a 6% and 5% increase in risk, respectively; each 1% decrease in FS corresponded to a 12% increase in risk. Only 8 (5.7%) of patients were predicted to exceed the guideline-recommended LVEDD threshold of 65 mm over 10 years. Age at onset was also a significant risk factor, with each decade increasing risk by 65% for each of the three parallel joint models. CONCLUSIONS: LV parameters show modest changes over time, despite holding strong prognostic value in patients with severe AR. LVEDD, while associated with overall risk, does not predictably or significantly dilate over time in most patients. AVR decisions should be based on comprehensive clinical and volumetric assessment rather than waiting for simple linear progression to guideline cutoffs.